Showing posts with label time preference. Show all posts
Showing posts with label time preference. Show all posts

Monday, January 08, 2007

Tobias and time preference

We tend to regard waiting as a cost and prefer a benefit now rather than in the future. This is captured in the notion of time preference and concerns the rate at which we as individuals trade-off present and future outcomes (or consumption).

Children sometimes see things slightly differently, so I tried a small experiment with Tobias a couple of days ago. I asked him the following: Would you like 1 ice cream now or 2 tomorrow? His answer was 1 today. I then asked whether he would prefer 1 ice cream now or 3 tomorrow. His immediate reaction was, wow ... 3 ice creams - that's a lot. After some thought he decided upon 3 tomorrow, although it was a difficult choice. He was very tempted to go with 1 ice cream today.

Tobias clearly has a very high positive rate of time preference. He values the present very highly and does not appear to think much of the future. There are a number of reasons why this might be the case:

  • He is very impatient;
  • He views the future as very uncertain - if consumption of a good is deferred it may never be enjoyed at all, i.e. we as parents change our opinion tomorrow or forget the deal; and
  • He has diminishing marginal utility - additional consumption at a later date may add less to utility than consumption now.

Alternatively, he might have been starving and in need of an energy boost. Of course I carefully designed the experiment to avoid this situation by offering him an ice cream as a dessert after a main meal :-).

For Tobias I think impatience is driving his desire for ice cream. Uncertainty over the future also plays a key role because the future is a difficult concept to grasp at his age. Nevertheless, I hope he understands and appreciates that we as parents keep our promises (or at least try to).

But things are not always as they seem. Today I asked him the same questions again. This time he was unwilling to defer his ice cream consumption to the next day. I even offered him 4 ice creams and to that he responded, shaking his head in disbelief: Dad, 4 is too much!