Storm Update #2

Forecasts today have substantially changed. Apparently, the ridge of high pressure that was forcing Gustav to the west shifted positions and caused Gustav to dip southwest. The center of Gustav is now passing Jamaica, and predictions strongly suggest Grand Cayman will be hit. The latest predicted path (including IR cloud coverage) is shown below. Note that another tropical storm Hanna has developed to the north.For the moment we can hope that dry air to the north and mountainous Jamaica will inhibit Gustav’s development. Late Friday, early Saturday is currently the best prediction of a hit on Cayman, if Gustav indeed hits us at all. I for one have become a bit skeptical of these computer simulations that are constantly being updated. Obviously when a weather expert tells you that a hurricane is heading your way, it's a good idea to prepare for impact or get out of the way, even if the storm ends up turning. But the erratic behaviour of Gustav so far makes me less pessimistic on Cayman’s behalf.

Btw, our office closes early today and will remain closed Friday. We are well prepared with lots of food and water and hurricane shutters on our windows. Stores remain open and although they are slightly more busy at times, there is no panic. We have been told electricity will remain on as long as possible, while the Water Authority will turn off the water supply at some stage to prevent potential damage to the distribution network. At this stage the weather remains fairly good. It is blowing more than usual, but the sun is still shining.