Storm Update #2

Forecasts today have substantially changed. Apparently, the ridge of high pressure that was forcing Gustav to the west shifted positions and caused Gustav to dip southwest. The center of Gustav is now passing Jamaica, and predictions strongly suggest Grand Cayman will be hit. The latest predicted path (including IR cloud coverage) is shown below. Note that another tropical storm Hanna has developed to the north.For the moment we can hope that dry air to the north and mountainous Jamaica will inhibit Gustav’s development. Late Friday, early Saturday is currently the best prediction of a hit on Cayman, if Gustav indeed hits us at all. I for one have become a bit skeptical of these computer simulations that are constantly being updated. Obviously when a weather expert tells you that a hurricane is heading your way, it's a good idea to prepare for impact or get out of the way, even if the storm ends up turning. But the erratic behaviour of Gustav so far makes me less pessimistic on Cayman’s behalf.

Btw, our office closes early today and will remain closed Friday. We are well prepared with lots of food and water and hurricane shutters on our windows. Stores remain open and although they are slightly more busy at times, there is no panic. We have been told electricity will remain on as long as possible, while the Water Authority will turn off the water supply at some stage to prevent potential damage to the distribution network. At this stage the weather remains fairly good. It is blowing more than usual, but the sun is still shining.

Storm Update

As many of you probably already know tropical storm / hurricane Gustav is approaching. Computer simulations suggest it might very well pass over the Cayman Islands. It is currently over Haiti and appears to be moving slowly westward towards Cuba.
The latest computer simulations are shown below.
Jeff Masters’ Wunderblog is not optimistic on Cayman’s behalf.

I think it is plausible that Gustav could intensify further, to Category 4 strength, before hitting the Caymans. If you have plans to be on the northern Cayman Islands--Cayman Brac or Little Cayman Island--on Friday, be prepared to be stuck there for several days, as Gustav may heavily damage these islands. Grand Cayman Island is also at risk--the GFDL model predicts Gustav will pass very close to Grand Cayman on Friday afternoon.

We are fairly well prepared, but Majken and Christoffer are doing some final shopping this morning to gather the final pieces. Shopping is a lengthy endeavour as all people scramble to prepare for the hurricane.

Article in the Observer

So this Sunday I was in the Observer. Johann and I won the two person time trial over a week ago. To read the full article click here.
Some exerts:

One of the last teams to start was the potent combination of triathletes Johann Prinsloo and Jasper Mikkelsen. The reason for their starting position towards the end of the field was that Mikkelsen needed time earlier in the morning to complete a 12 mile training run before he could do the time trial.

I have started to run on Sunday mornings with a guy called Russel. He is a better runner than me, so it always makes for a good solid run. On the day of the time trial I did however, take it a little easier on the final kilometers to make sure my legs were not ruined before the ride. I have decided not to skip any runs. As I have written in a previous post it was my running that let me down in Florida for the half ironman and I don't want that to happen again.

Prinsloo readily admits that his partner in crime Mikkelsen had to do most of the work out on the course.

“Our TT race was more of a ‘Truck and Trailer’ than a Time Trial event. With Jasper being in peak condition leading up to his Ironman event and myself just having picked up the bike again after a two-month break following Florida Half Ironman, I found that I had to put in a lot of effort just to stay on his back wheel and only managed to slip to the front for a few short sections. It was a tough but fun and as always well organised event and I’ll be looking forward to the next one,” says Prinsloo.

Mikkelsen was delighted with the win, and very relieved that his legs could still put in a good time trial in spite of his training run.

“I wasn’t sure how my legs would react after the run, so Johan and I decided that it was probably best for him to lead the first mile. But already after the first minute I could feel my legs were fine, so I took the lead and let Johan know that I was good to go,” says Mikkelsen.

”I was a bit surprised that we could pull off a win, but we rode a good and strong race, keeping a consistent pace throughout the 10 miles. As a triathlete it is always a pleasure to beat the roadies on their own turf"

The last bit of the last quote is missing from the article.

I think Johann painted a picture that gives the impression that I controlled the whole ride. It is true that I probably dominated on the day, but Johann also did his part.