Hazards

The other day at work a colleague mentioned in passing the possibility of earthquakes here in the Caymans. What ?!! was my reaction. But he asserted me we live in an area prone to volcanic activity. That made me ponder what kind natural hazards I was exposing myself and my family to, by living in this region of the world. Based on a look at various websites, I came up with the following four major hazards: earthquakes, volcanoes, tsunamis and hurricanes.

Earthquakes, volcanoes and tsunamis enjoy a common father: the movement of tectonic plates. Grand Cayman lies on the plate boundary between the North American and Caribbean plates (see image), next to the Cayman Trough (or Trench).

The tectonic plates in Cayman’s region are in continuous lateral movement against each other, with the Caribbean plate traveling east at approx. 20 mm a year. The lateral movement limits the size of earthquakes in this area. However, in December 2004 a quake of 6.8 magnitude rocked Grand Cayman - there was no major damage though.

The following image shows the Cayman Trough together with an indication of Caribbean plate boundaries. The Trough has a maximum depth of 7,686 meters.

The depth of the Trough is more easily seen in the image below. It provides a perspective view of the sea floor of the Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea. Florida is on the upper right. The purple sea floor at the bottom center of the view is the Puerto Rico trench, the deepest part of the Atlantic Ocean. At the top of the image and to the left of Cuba you can see the Cayman Trench and what looks like small mountains. The top of the mountains are the Cayman islands - the realisation that we are on top of massive underwater mountains in the middle of nowhere made me feel small and vulnerable.

Along the northern east part of the Caribbean plate, including areas in the vicinity of Jamaica and the Virgin Islands, moderate earthquakes of shallow depth are generated. In the Eastern Caribbean seismic events are common and principally associated with a subduction zone at the junction of the Caribbean Plate and the North American Plate. The North American Plate slides underneath the Caribbean Plate along a north-south line just east of the arc of Caribbean islands.

Several of the islands of the Eastern Caribbean are volcanic in origin. Grenada even has a submarine volcano called Kick 'em Jenny. Studies dating back to 1972 indicate that minor eruptions have been occurring on a fairly regular basis and that the summit of the volcano is growing at a rate of approximately 4 metres per annum.

To conclude, on a hazard rating of 1 to 10 for Cayman: volcanoes = 0, earthquakes = 2.

So what about the possibility of a tsunami? The majority of tsunamis are related to tectonic displacements associated with earthquakes at plate boundaries. However, tsunamis can also be generated by erupting volcanos, landslides or underwater explosions (and meteorites). For islands in the vicinity of Kick’em Jenny that is bad news.

Grand Cayman has large boulders on its south coast that geologists believe were moved from the seabed to land by a tsunami. Carbon-dating of dead sea-plants on the rocks put the event in 1662 plus-or-minus 25 years. That time-period comes close to including the 1692 earthquake and the event-generated tsunami and landslide that killed over 2,000 in Port Royal, Jamaica. However geologists believe that Grand Cayman's rocks were moved by an even greater event.

For us in the Cayman, I doubt tsunamis pose a significant threat. It seems to me that possible movements in the Cayman trench are at a depth and of a type (horizontal not vertical movement) that would be unlikely to create a tsunami. My hazard rating: tsunami = 1.

Finally, we have hurricanes which name is derived from the Mayan storm god Hunraken and the Arawak (Amerindians encountered by the Spanish explorers) word hurican, which meant the devil wind. As I noted in a previous post one of the greatest of all recorded hurricanes occurred in October 1780. Nearly 20,000 people perished. Warmer waters also increase their intensity.

Here in Grand Cayman, hurricane Ivan (two years ago) caused massive damage. Damage which is still evident today. Apart from strong winds and flying debris, one of the major contributors to damage was the surge of water, flooding almost all parts of the low-lying island. I would say the likelihood a direct hit by a hurricane is substantial. My hazard rating: hurricane = 8.

Writing about hurricanes reminds me of an article I read in the local newspaper a few weeks ago. It was on the (economic) cost of hurricanes. It is pretty obvious that people who live in hurricane prone areas must expect to incur additional costs to protect themselves. Building construction needs to be of a higher grade, insurance is more expensive, etc. However, one thing I had not thought about (which in retrospect seems obvious) is the cost to businesses of having emergency hurricane disaster plans in place and the cost of acting upon these plans in the event of a possible hurricane event. Think of staff evacuation, additional back-up options for data, standby office space off shore etc. When hurricane Dean passed south of Cayman with no consequence whatsoever a month ago, most firms engaged their pre-hurricane disaster plans. While some incurred little cost, some sent all staff off island at considerable expense.

Sting rays miles apart

Below is the Stingray Nebula captured by the Hubble Space Telescope (image from NASA). The bright central star is in the middle of the green ring of gas. Its companion star is diagonally above it at 10 o'clock. The colors shown are actual colors emitted by nitrogen (red), oxygen (green) and hydrogen (blue). The nebula is as large as 130 solar systems and at a distance of 18,000 light-years.

Much closer is Stingray City here in Grand Cayman. It is located in the shallow waters east of the northwest corner of Grand Cayman. According to local legend stingrays began gathering in the area many years ago when fisherman would clean their catch in the calm water of the shallows and sand bar area. Over time the stingrays began to associate the sound of a boat engine with a free meal. Not unsurpringly: friendly sting rays = major tourist attraction.

I should note that sting rays can be seen all around Grand Cayman. The other day while swimming just 20 meters off shore and no more than 200 meters from where we live, a sting ray passed under me.

RS800 Polar

A couple of days ago I received a product update from Polar (the company that makes heart rate monitors). Around two years ago I upgraded to a new polar heart rate monitor. At the time I did some research into the different options. It was clear that GPS was finding its way into distance and speed measurement. But the units were a bit too bulky for my liking. There was also the issue that I had an Ipod shuffle strapped to my left arm when running and the thought of having a device on the other arm simply didn't appeal to me (nowadays the Ipod is hidden in my back short pocket). When I read that Polar had added what they called a G3 GPS sensor to their RS800 training system I was hoping for a cool new innovation.


Nope... Polar has opted for the arm strap solution. Disappointing. Had they produced a heart rate monitor with in-built GPS, instead of a separate unit, I would have been first in line to buy one. See the RS 800 here. I am guessing it is still too costly or difficult to add a GPS unit to a wristwatch without changing size and appearance siginificantly.

NW Passage

In a previous post I mentioned the Artic Northwest passage being open. Today I came across an article from the ESA (click here). Apparently the area covered by sea ice in the Arctic has shrunk to its lowest level this week since satellite measurements began nearly 30 years ago.

The ESA has created a mosaic using radar equipment aboard their Envisat satellite. The image is created from nearly 200 images acquired in early September 2007. The Northwest Passage is the orange line and the Northeast passage (partially blocked) is the blue line. The dark gray colour represents the ice-free areas, while green represents areas with sea ice.

UPDATE: Below is a picture from the NASA observatory which more clearly shows what is going on. The graph of sea ice melt shows the five-day mean sea ice extent for June through September. It compares values from 2007 with those from 2005 and the average (1979-2000).

A devine morning

Today I went to church!

Those who know me may be surprised, because this not something I do very often. The people who live downstairs had invited to me to go along to see the school that is affiliated with the church.

I am currently trying to find a school for Tobias. Here in Cayman every school I have seen so far has an affiliation of some kind to a Christian church or a Christian movement. In this case it was a Baptist church. Other denomination of the Christianity on the island include Anglican, Catholicism, Church of God and Presbyterian.

Arriving there at 9.15 am, I was taken on a brief tour of the school. Nothing much to say about the school grounds - everything looked fine. Then I was placed in discussion class. The subject: the Book of Daniel (chapter 3). For more devoted Christians this is probably a well-known story, but for me it was all new. I guess I could have heard the story as a child, but it is certainly not something I remember. Anyway it is the story of three Hebrews Shadrach, Meshach and Abednego who defy King Nebuchadnezzar's order to bow down and worship a huge golden idol (9 stories high). As a result Nebuchadnezzar throws them into a fiery furnace (likely used when building the idol), but they are miraculously unharmed by the flames. Nebuchadnezzar sees them walking around in the furnace along with an unnamed fourth figure. When they emerge, Nebuchadnezzar orders everyone to worship their god instead of the idol. The fourth figure (who did not emerge) was the Son of God or a least that's who Nebuchadnezzar thought it was.

The story was discussed for a hour. I kept my quite, only listening. Suffice to say, discussion of Christianity is not something I do very often and I felt very much like an outsider. There was some interesting discussion though, some of which I could relate not to Christianity but to game theory and strategic interaction on the part of the Hebrews and the king.

After discussion class it was time for church. Compared to the church on Ærø where I would normally go Christmas eve, this was all high tech. Power-point presentations running lyrics to the hymns on two huge screens and top of the line sound equipment. Compare this with hymns idenified by a number listed on boards. There was a band consisting of keyboard player, drummer and guitarist. Compare with a mechanical organ. Cushioned seats vs. antic wooden benches… you get the picture. However, once the initial fascination with the physical elements subsided, it was frankly not a service that appealed very much to me. But the same is often the case in Danish churches.

Churches seem to play an extremely significant role in Caymanian society. It is evident when walking the streets on Sunday. Many native Caymanians are churchgoers. Indeed it would appear that the churches are more than religious centres - they are also community centers serving as a basis for a variety of activities.

On http://www.caymanchurches.com/ I counted 35 churches - a pretty significant amount for a population of about 45,000, of which just under half are Caymanian residents and the rest expatriates.

By the way, I met the Principal of the school after church and she me invited me for a tour on a normal everyday school day. No doubt a much better way to evaluate the school than on a Sunday morning.

48 years ago today....

...the Soviet Union launched The Sputnik-like probe "Luna 2" from the Baikonur Cosmodrome. It took 33.5 hours to reach its destination the moon. The first man-made object to hit the lunar satellite. More info on the Luna Missions here.

UPDATE: Of course, also a very appropriate day for Google to launch the Lunar X Prize, a competition that will award US$20 million to the first team that lands a private unmanned spacecraft on the moon and broadcasts high-definition video back to earth.

Summer Games

This summer Tobias has been playing with new games and toys. Two in particular have dominated: Bionicle and Yu-Gi-Oh. While Bionicle are a series of robotic monsters that need assembly upon purchase (in typical Lego fashion), Yu-Gi-Oh is a card game. While they don’t at first sight seem to have anything in common, they both make use of myths and legends and involve battles of good against evil. In my opinion, Tobias is still a little young to play with them, but he seems to enjoy both nonetheless.

Both have complicated storyboards that (at least for adults) require study to appreciate. I myself have not taken the time to understand the different worlds these games or toys develop. However, with some time to spare, I decided to spend a few hours taking a closer look. Here is the result - basically a summary of publicly available sources on the internet spiced-up with my own experience playing with Tobias. Note that I feel like I have only scratched the surface.

Let’s start with Bionicle.

My initial searches on the Lego website were rather confusing. However, in retrospect this confusion was derived from my lack of knowledge of the Bionicle background. To start at square one, the storyline begins as follows….

In the time before time, the island of Mata Nui was a tropical paradise. The villagers, called Matoran, and their elders who lead the villages, the Turaga, lived in peace. That was before the Makuta came. Dark brother of the spirit Mata Nui, the Makuta quickly engulfed the island in evil. Matoran and Turaga inhabitants had almost lost hope in the legends handed down over the years.... legends that told of the coming of six mighty heroes, the Toa, who would free the island of terror. And then, on one unsuspecting day six large canisters washed up on the shores of Mata Nui. Inside the canisters lay the saviors of the island, the Toa.

Each of the six Toa had a special ability to control an element of nature. Tahu was the unspoken leader of the Toa who controlled the element of fire. The solitary Kopaka controlled ice. Clumsy footed Lewa was Toa of the air. Gali the Toa of water was the only female Toa. Onua, Toa of Earth, was as wise as he was strong. And the sluggish Toa of stone Pohatu used his large feet to kick boulders great distances.The Toa knew what was required of them: defeat the evil that terrorized the island. They also knew that they could not tackle that quest without the aid of six Great Masks of Power, called Kanohi.

And so begins the adventures of the Toa (the Māori word for "champion"), their first quest, to search for the Kanohi masks. This was all back in 2001, when Bionicle was first introduced. In their latest adventure (at the time of writing) the Toa (now called Toa Mahri) are undersea warriors. The Great Spirit Mata Nui is dying (remember this was the also the name of the island - not sure why the island and spirit have the same name), and only the so called Mask of Life can save the spirit and the universe. The Toa’s quest is therefore to find the mask which is beneath the sea.

Beneath the waves, the Toa discover the sunken city of Mahri Nui and its Matoran inhabitants. The villagers are caught up in a desperate battle for survival against the mutated Barraki and their armies of sea creatures. Of course the Barraki have the Mask of Life in their possession. It is the Barraki and Toa Mahri that Tobias has collected.

Building the Bionicle characters is straightforward for adults, but a challenge for children Tobias age. Tobias and his cousin Niels (both 5) managed to build one the characters almost entirely by themselves. They are also great for different poses. All major joints (ankle, knee, hip, arm, head etc.) are movable.

Lego has come far since I was a kid. Although the good old fashioned Lego is still, in my opinion, superior to these new "biomechanical" beings.

Now for a look at Yu-Gi-Oh.

As mentioned earlier Yu-Gi-Oh is a card game. It is based around a boy named Yugi who learns of an ancient Egyptian card fighting game called "Duel Monsters". Playing the game Yugi solves the secret of an ancient puzzle (the Millennium Puzzle) and releases the spirit of an Egyptian King, Yami Yugi. With help from the King's spirit, Yugi sets out to become King of the Duelists (or Yu-Gi-Oh! - King of Games).

The game is played with three types of cards: Monster Cards, Trap Cards and Magic Cards. Monster cards are used to attack or defend. Each monster has an attribute indicated by a symbol on the top right corner of its card. There are 6 attributes in all (earth, water, fire, wind, light, dark). The type of monster and its attribute determine its ability to attack or defend. Each monster has a predetermined number of Attack and Defend points. Magic Cards have a wide range of magical abilities. Some make monsters stronger or weaker while others may alter the conditions of the battle field. Trap cards are literally traps that can be activated after your opponents turn.

Tobias is especially fascinated by three cards: The Egyptian Gods: Slifer the Sky Dragon, Obelisk the Tormentor and Winged Dragon of Ra. The three Egyptian Gods combine to form the omnipotent Creator of Light - Harakhti.

We haven’t actually played with the original Yu-Gi-Oh cards. Tobias has drawn 30 different cards each with different abilities. As creator of his own game, playing with him can at times be very difficult as he has a tendency to manipulate the cards and monsters to his liking and to detriment of his opponent. If he continues to find these card games interesting we might have to buy him a real set.

Storm of 1780

I am currently reading a book on the history of the Caribbean. To follow-up from the previous post where I briefly mentioned hurricanes, there is an account in the book of a hurricane that passed over the region in October 1780. During its passage, it killed well over 22,000 people and totally destroyed large British and French naval fleets as well as hundreds of merchant ships. Back then there were no instruments to measure the force of the hurricane, but maximum wind gusts are thought have exceeded 300 km per hour since raindrops stripped the trees of their bark!

Back in the Caymans

I am back in the Caymans, having accepted the job offer from the Information, Communications and Technology Authority (ICTA). I have been given a week to sought out all tasks related to a move abroad: accommodation, schools, banking etc. So far I have opened a bank account and found a place to live. The apartment is located in the George Town area close to schools and work. It has a sea view and direct access to the sea and a beach half a block away. The Google Earth coordinates are: lat=19.2784135251, lon=-81.3917586815

As I write this post there is a thunder storm passing overhead. The last couple of days I have been watching the developments of hurricane Felix. It passed way south of Cayman as expected. The people here didn’t make any fuss at all. With hurricane Dean a few weeks ago, however, it is my understanding that some areas were vacated and people prepared themselves for a hit.

The potential for a hurricane passing over the Caymans has influenced me in some of my tasks this week. For example, when renting a house, a two story is recommended. During hurricane Ivan (three years ago), the island was nearly covered in sea water. A quarter or more of the buildings on the islands were reported to be uninhabitable, with 85% damaged to some extent. A second story can keep you dry. Another example, is my choice of car. During Ivan almost all cars were covered in sea water, ruining car engines. Obviously, I don’t intend to buy an amphibious vehicle, but through private purchase there is a risk of buying an Ivan infected car. As a person with very little understanding of car mechanics, this has narrowed my car search efforts to car dealers.

The prospects of a hurricane passing over the island both scares and fascinates me. Currently, we in the midst of the Atlantic hurricane season. The figure below illustrates the Atlantic hurricane season with over 97% of tropical activity within the period of 1 June to 30 November.
There is evidence that the global warming might be making the storms stronger (not increasing their number). In addition, global warming may also be causing sea levels to rise. The Northwest Passage is now open (connecting the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans) and melting polar ice and glaciers may cause a rise in global sea levels - something that should be a major concern for Caymanians. Cayman Islands is very low lying and I suspect a rise of only a few meters could have disastrous effects.